President Bush should win this election. An incumbent is hard to beat, especially when that incumbent is heading up a war that the majority of his constituents feel is just. But Bush could easily loose this election through apathy.
Recently, a memo was leaked that gave the definition of "torture" according to the Justice Department. In the memo it appears that the level of "torture" is only reached when someone's death will be caused by the treatment they are being subjected to.
Couple this with the recent appearance of arguing both sides of the fence in regards to the Guantanamo Bay detainees. In the US the President's council argued that the prisoners where not on US soil, so they should not receive the same protection guaranteed by the Constitution to those in the US regardless of citizenship. On the other hand, they argued that the detainees were not protected under the international laws of war because they were being held on US property. Which is it? Well, I guess since they are just on US property and not on US sovereign land they're just at the President's pleasure.
And recently, the President's legal team argued before the Supreme Court that the President has unchecked powers of detainment when the US is at war. Well, not fully unchecked, as long as it has to do with "war". Could you imagine if McCarthy had been President and had this power?
So with the President setting himself up as such an unlikable chap, how are people supposed to feel like they should go vote? The short story - they don't, and might not. I think the President's camp realizes this now. As I wrote this article, I saw the first "positive" ad campaign that focused up the sunny side. I think they're realizing that with all of the bad PR they're getting, they need to focus on the happy, feel good message.